* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/16/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 73 68 64 62 59 56 55 52 47 43 40 40 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 85 78 73 68 64 62 59 56 55 52 47 43 40 40 42 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 85 78 72 67 63 57 53 50 49 46 41 35 31 28 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 5 2 8 6 13 16 12 10 16 6 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 2 3 4 -2 0 3 1 0 -4 -8 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 35 33 32 40 55 86 125 221 242 224 214 228 178 175 169 120 111 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 131 132 137 136 133 135 138 135 130 131 141 141 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 59 61 63 61 63 61 62 60 59 55 54 52 52 51 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 20 19 18 19 18 16 17 15 14 12 9 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -6 -1 -2 0 22 21 29 22 18 3 3 -4 -9 -9 15 16 200 MB DIV 5 0 -2 -22 -25 -1 0 21 50 34 6 -22 -14 -25 -9 -26 -36 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 -8 -1 0 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1464 1501 1539 1577 1612 1701 1774 1842 1913 1963 2031 2107 2220 2185 2079 1967 1875 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.3 16.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.3 124.7 125.2 125.6 126.5 127.5 128.5 129.5 130.3 131.2 132.1 133.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 4 4 7 6 5 11 16 14 9 12 19 14 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -26. -29. -30. -33. -38. -42. -45. -45. -43. -41. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.3 123.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 457.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 -1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 6.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##