* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 73 69 64 60 59 58 54 52 48 45 45 44 45 47 49 V (KT) LAND 90 81 73 69 64 60 59 58 54 52 48 45 45 44 45 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 90 81 74 68 63 56 51 48 46 44 40 35 31 28 27 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 16 14 15 9 3 8 9 7 14 11 4 8 4 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 1 3 -1 0 1 0 2 -5 -5 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 37 34 38 40 40 83 116 150 243 214 273 224 206 171 198 82 71 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 129 130 131 134 136 131 131 134 136 134 130 130 136 142 141 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 61 63 62 61 63 62 61 60 55 56 50 52 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 20 18 19 18 17 16 16 14 12 12 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 -3 -1 -2 1 16 21 18 4 0 -13 -22 -27 -5 14 42 200 MB DIV -3 0 -11 -10 -18 -4 -15 7 14 32 20 -35 -35 -31 -41 -24 -23 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 -4 -3 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1430 1468 1506 1548 1583 1655 1736 1796 1858 1914 1973 2033 2107 2196 2230 2120 2002 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.0 124.4 124.9 125.3 126.1 127.1 128.0 128.9 129.7 130.5 131.3 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 4 6 11 16 13 9 10 17 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. -31. -32. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -3. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -10. -13. -12. -14. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -21. -26. -30. -31. -32. -36. -38. -42. -45. -45. -46. -45. -43. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.3 123.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 483.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 -0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##