* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 80 83 84 85 85 90 84 75 64 57 52 45 41 33 26 V (KT) LAND 75 79 80 83 84 85 85 90 84 75 64 57 52 45 41 33 26 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 86 88 91 90 90 81 66 52 42 37 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 17 23 24 28 34 41 54 53 35 42 35 39 31 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 0 3 3 0 -2 0 4 7 6 4 -4 -4 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 270 249 228 225 222 205 219 213 220 229 258 258 275 283 303 310 315 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 27.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 25.9 22.5 15.8 19.9 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 138 141 143 147 151 137 125 125 125 113 90 71 80 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 112 115 119 122 127 131 118 107 104 103 95 79 67 73 74 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.9 -53.7 -55.3 -56.4 -57.1 -57.5 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 49 48 47 42 41 42 44 46 47 48 49 46 51 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 28 30 32 35 41 42 42 39 37 37 35 36 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR -1 8 18 15 14 50 81 108 82 45 -7 -5 -64 -111 -132 -115 -95 200 MB DIV 33 43 25 13 33 62 70 73 31 16 36 37 33 17 -27 -48 -32 700-850 TADV 3 0 -4 -2 -1 -13 -12 -36 -35 -12 16 18 24 16 3 36 86 LAND (KM) 399 451 476 489 509 566 670 807 951 862 752 677 606 501 402 547 802 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.8 31.4 32.4 34.0 36.0 37.7 39.3 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.2 75.7 75.0 74.4 72.7 70.5 67.9 65.2 62.9 60.9 59.1 56.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 7 8 11 13 14 13 11 11 12 13 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 21 22 22 20 31 31 15 16 17 12 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -25. -27. -28. -30. -31. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 20. 20. 15. 11. 10. 7. 7. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 15. 9. 0. -11. -18. -23. -30. -34. -42. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.8 76.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.10 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 17.4% 12.5% 9.7% 9.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.1% 21.5% 16.6% 5.9% 1.9% 3.8% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.4% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.5% 13.2% 9.9% 5.5% 3.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 9( 20) 10( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 79 80 83 84 85 85 90 84 75 64 57 52 45 41 33 26 18HR AGO 75 74 75 78 79 80 80 85 79 70 59 52 47 40 36 28 21 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 75 76 76 81 75 66 55 48 43 36 32 24 17 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 67 67 72 66 57 46 39 34 27 23 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT