* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 85 80 75 66 64 63 62 59 55 51 47 46 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 100 92 85 80 75 66 64 63 62 59 55 51 47 46 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 85 78 72 62 57 54 51 50 47 41 35 30 27 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 16 15 13 2 1 6 9 15 13 14 5 4 3 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 3 3 4 3 0 0 2 6 0 -5 -4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 46 37 36 50 45 42 128 329 202 242 244 219 218 212 188 77 325 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.4 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 130 130 130 132 136 135 130 131 135 135 131 129 131 141 141 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 63 60 61 61 61 62 60 64 63 60 54 50 48 47 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 20 18 19 19 18 18 18 16 13 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 10 1 -9 -4 -5 29 16 30 21 18 2 -8 -18 4 18 38 200 MB DIV -2 0 -2 4 -3 -22 1 0 20 22 31 20 -25 -47 -40 -19 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 -1 -6 0 2 3 0 0 1 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1387 1428 1470 1509 1547 1612 1692 1758 1811 1859 1924 1992 2060 2118 2222 2185 2079 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.4 123.9 124.4 124.8 125.6 126.5 127.4 128.3 129.1 130.0 130.9 131.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 4 6 12 14 10 8 11 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -28. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -6. -2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -20. -25. -34. -36. -37. -38. -41. -45. -49. -53. -54. -54. -53. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.2 122.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 554.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.29 -0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 8.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##