* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/16/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 81 84 84 85 85 80 68 62 55 51 46 39 29 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 81 81 84 84 85 85 80 68 62 55 51 46 39 29 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 83 84 86 90 90 88 87 73 56 45 40 37 35 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 14 19 25 25 36 36 49 54 43 35 38 35 25 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 1 8 5 6 4 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 262 268 236 225 230 213 219 205 216 213 231 235 259 245 275 255 286 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.3 29.0 28.6 27.9 27.1 27.1 26.5 26.4 23.3 22.6 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 133 135 138 143 141 152 146 136 126 126 119 117 91 87 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 111 113 116 120 121 131 126 117 107 105 97 95 77 73 74 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 8 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 53 50 50 44 43 41 42 49 50 53 54 64 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 26 32 33 36 40 41 39 37 35 35 35 33 27 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -6 10 16 19 50 68 97 102 89 43 3 -6 -15 -10 1 -17 200 MB DIV 23 37 44 14 6 51 59 78 35 44 -9 54 39 47 31 33 18 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 -4 -1 -6 -11 -28 -23 -44 7 12 24 23 30 25 16 LAND (KM) 328 377 425 449 461 513 584 716 859 941 859 723 656 620 645 626 622 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.7 31.1 31.6 32.7 34.3 36.1 38.0 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.5 77.1 76.6 76.0 75.4 73.9 72.0 69.7 67.1 64.7 62.6 60.9 59.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 7 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 8 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 30 27 24 23 21 19 33 27 16 16 21 6 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -22. -24. -25. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 13. 19. 21. 17. 14. 9. 9. 8. 4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 9. 10. 10. 5. -7. -13. -20. -24. -29. -36. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.6 77.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 457.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.45 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 17.2% 12.4% 9.6% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.3% 20.3% 15.6% 5.0% 1.4% 4.0% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.7% 1.1% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.1% 12.8% 9.6% 5.3% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/16/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 7( 12) 8( 19) 9( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 80 81 81 84 84 85 85 80 68 62 55 51 46 39 29 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 77 80 80 81 81 76 64 58 51 47 42 35 25 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 72 75 75 76 76 71 59 53 46 42 37 30 20 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 68 68 69 69 64 52 46 39 35 30 23 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT