* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 104 97 90 79 71 66 62 58 52 47 39 34 33 33 34 V (KT) LAND 115 111 104 97 90 79 71 66 62 58 52 47 39 34 33 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 105 97 90 77 68 64 59 55 51 44 36 28 22 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 14 13 12 8 2 1 8 13 29 27 25 15 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 8 6 10 5 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 28 44 51 47 52 53 34 334 171 206 235 240 249 259 257 257 297 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.1 26.7 26.2 26.4 26.8 26.3 26.3 27.2 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 135 133 130 131 132 129 123 126 130 125 125 135 134 131 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 61 61 64 60 61 59 59 61 60 55 49 44 40 36 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 23 23 22 21 21 21 21 19 19 16 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 12 10 1 -5 -9 -8 9 14 22 32 52 38 33 21 38 39 200 MB DIV 17 7 -5 -16 -8 0 -27 0 -2 11 34 12 2 -26 -54 -34 -30 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 1 2 5 2 1 -3 -6 -11 LAND (KM) 1282 1322 1363 1401 1440 1510 1563 1628 1695 1759 1844 1934 2033 2148 2091 1934 1787 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.1 122.7 123.2 123.7 124.6 125.5 126.4 127.4 128.5 129.7 131.0 132.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 2 0 2 6 1 1 11 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -25. -33. -41. -47. -52. -56. -57. -59. -60. -62. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -7. -2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -2. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -7. -6. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -18. -25. -36. -44. -49. -53. -57. -63. -68. -76. -81. -82. -82. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 17.1 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 610.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##