* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 113 106 99 86 76 70 65 61 58 51 44 37 32 28 28 V (KT) LAND 115 116 113 106 99 86 76 70 65 61 58 51 44 37 32 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 110 102 94 81 71 64 60 57 53 47 40 31 24 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 15 14 11 9 2 4 8 11 22 35 39 36 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 6 6 7 6 7 5 SHEAR DIR 27 29 53 54 54 60 38 59 255 179 232 223 244 234 234 231 244 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.2 26.7 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 136 136 135 130 130 131 129 124 123 126 129 124 130 136 133 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 62 64 60 60 57 58 60 58 54 50 47 47 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 18 17 14 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 9 8 0 -14 -15 -1 15 28 27 46 47 41 17 9 17 200 MB DIV 14 12 -2 -10 -19 -2 -28 -9 -14 6 15 24 39 16 -15 -23 -53 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -2 0 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 4 4 3 -2 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 1245 1282 1321 1362 1404 1476 1535 1583 1634 1696 1769 1864 1960 2074 2187 2030 1872 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 122.0 122.6 123.2 124.2 125.1 125.9 126.8 127.7 128.8 130.1 131.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 7 6 4 4 5 3 1 0 2 5 1 4 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -24. -33. -40. -47. -52. -56. -57. -59. -60. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -2. 2. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -9. -16. -29. -39. -45. -50. -54. -57. -64. -71. -78. -83. -87. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.9 120.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##