* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 60 64 70 74 76 78 75 76 59 47 41 37 30 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 60 64 70 74 76 78 75 76 59 47 41 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 59 62 67 73 77 78 79 74 61 45 35 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 12 16 19 16 25 24 39 44 64 65 48 37 39 34 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -2 -1 -5 0 0 -2 0 1 3 0 7 -1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 276 272 255 256 261 240 236 225 224 216 222 217 228 240 257 235 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.9 28.8 28.1 27.6 26.6 25.4 25.9 18.6 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 138 138 136 140 140 151 150 140 134 122 110 114 76 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 115 115 115 114 118 120 132 132 123 116 105 94 96 70 74 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -52.9 -54.3 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 58 60 61 56 56 50 50 44 43 44 45 46 45 54 68 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 20 20 21 25 27 29 32 35 41 34 31 31 33 32 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 9 9 -19 6 5 43 72 106 91 66 -5 -7 -6 49 103 200 MB DIV 30 18 34 42 27 21 23 52 38 72 28 59 32 81 45 73 34 700-850 TADV 8 6 4 2 4 0 -1 -6 -17 -48 -55 -51 -6 30 36 16 -86 LAND (KM) 272 274 272 299 328 417 450 516 651 842 992 929 871 790 632 621 710 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.6 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.7 32.7 34.1 36.0 37.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.6 77.8 77.9 77.7 77.5 76.5 75.1 73.1 70.5 67.3 64.0 60.7 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 6 8 10 13 15 16 16 15 15 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 41 46 45 40 30 26 17 30 28 19 13 4 0 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -18. -27. -33. -38. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 27. 15. 10. 9. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 20. 24. 26. 28. 25. 26. 9. -3. -9. -13. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.0 77.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.7% 10.7% 8.3% 7.6% 10.9% 11.6% 11.8% Logistic: 2.2% 9.2% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2.9% 3.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.5% 5.1% 3.2% 2.7% 4.6% 4.9% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 58 60 64 70 74 76 78 75 76 59 47 41 37 30 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 57 61 67 71 73 75 72 73 56 44 38 34 27 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 51 55 61 65 67 69 66 67 50 38 32 28 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 46 52 56 58 60 57 58 41 29 23 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT