* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 102 100 94 81 71 61 55 50 46 38 29 23 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 102 102 100 94 81 71 61 55 50 46 38 29 23 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 103 103 98 92 78 67 59 53 47 41 34 27 21 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 12 14 15 11 9 6 4 13 16 26 37 43 45 46 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 6 3 0 -1 3 6 5 6 5 -1 1 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 67 43 44 37 59 54 41 8 250 276 253 249 222 242 234 257 260 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.4 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 135 136 137 133 126 127 123 117 116 117 122 122 126 129 132 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.4 -53.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 58 60 62 60 60 56 53 51 49 43 41 38 40 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 22 22 19 19 17 18 17 16 15 12 10 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 27 16 14 0 -5 -4 8 20 21 27 40 37 23 27 16 200 MB DIV 27 21 -8 -11 -5 -25 -14 -6 -2 -7 13 27 16 41 18 -4 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -5 -4 0 -4 -2 1 0 4 2 1 2 0 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1158 1203 1251 1290 1331 1386 1440 1483 1542 1599 1660 1719 1827 1962 2099 2050 1893 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.7 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.5 121.2 121.8 122.4 123.3 124.2 125.3 126.4 127.4 128.4 129.4 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 7 8 8 6 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -25. -29. -34. -37. -39. -40. -42. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -0. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 13. 11. 8. 4. 0. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 7. 5. -1. -14. -24. -34. -40. -45. -49. -57. -66. -72. -78. -82. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.0 119.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 8.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 481.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 -2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.2% 21.0% 18.5% 15.4% 10.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 6.3% 7.1% 2.2% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.9% 9.1% 8.5% 5.8% 4.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##