* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/15/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 53 57 63 69 74 78 78 82 81 70 47 36 30 25 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 53 57 63 69 74 78 78 82 81 70 47 36 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 48 51 54 61 69 74 78 79 79 73 57 42 34 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 11 11 14 18 19 27 29 37 44 57 57 62 74 55 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -5 -2 -3 2 0 5 -4 4 4 4 0 -1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 263 282 277 258 254 264 232 240 218 230 218 219 220 219 220 236 254 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.2 28.2 27.9 27.5 26.1 26.0 22.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 138 140 137 137 140 147 157 141 138 133 117 116 90 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 116 115 116 115 115 120 128 137 124 121 116 102 99 79 77 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 60 61 55 52 49 46 44 41 40 37 38 34 33 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 19 20 23 25 28 31 31 37 40 38 28 28 30 28 850 MB ENV VOR 17 -11 -10 7 4 -11 4 18 52 82 105 113 102 119 66 4 -17 200 MB DIV 22 25 22 37 45 20 30 34 48 51 83 72 62 -19 -13 -38 -33 700-850 TADV 2 7 5 4 2 4 -1 -1 -11 -17 -33 -32 -1 17 -54 -58 -18 LAND (KM) 289 280 271 287 300 385 442 489 589 765 968 995 942 893 709 686 804 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.0 28.5 28.9 29.3 29.9 30.5 30.9 31.3 32.0 33.2 34.9 36.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.2 77.5 77.8 77.7 77.7 77.0 75.6 74.0 71.7 68.7 65.6 62.3 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 5 7 9 11 14 15 17 18 18 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 42 43 44 34 28 21 22 30 18 19 16 1 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -26. -35. -45. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 14. 21. 25. 21. 7. 5. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 24. 29. 33. 33. 37. 36. 25. 2. -9. -15. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.4 77.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.1% 10.2% 7.9% 7.4% 10.4% 11.4% 13.4% Logistic: 2.9% 18.4% 9.7% 4.0% 2.0% 6.1% 6.5% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 11.3% 6.7% 4.0% 3.1% 5.5% 6.0% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/15/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 53 57 63 69 74 78 78 82 81 70 47 36 30 25 18HR AGO 45 44 46 50 54 60 66 71 75 75 79 78 67 44 33 27 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 55 61 66 70 70 74 73 62 39 28 22 17 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 51 56 60 60 64 63 52 29 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT