* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 68 70 70 63 57 50 44 38 33 27 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 68 70 70 63 57 50 44 38 33 27 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 65 67 68 67 60 52 45 39 33 28 23 19 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 5 8 13 15 7 9 14 18 25 24 30 45 47 47 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -1 0 1 5 7 6 9 3 2 5 0 6 4 0 SHEAR DIR 109 110 54 28 6 38 10 334 310 277 276 270 248 252 254 266 265 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.9 26.3 26.2 26.4 25.8 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 133 128 131 125 124 126 119 113 117 120 123 124 126 120 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 62 61 60 61 58 58 53 47 41 37 37 39 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 21 22 19 18 17 16 14 13 11 9 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 35 36 26 32 18 1 -1 17 13 31 52 61 36 6 12 200 MB DIV 77 79 48 17 -1 -9 -20 -13 -5 1 12 4 7 7 24 14 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 -3 0 5 1 1 2 1 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1007 1045 1087 1121 1159 1237 1302 1352 1412 1472 1560 1670 1803 1978 2079 1871 1663 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.7 119.4 120.1 120.8 122.1 123.3 124.5 125.7 126.8 128.0 129.4 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 10 6 2 4 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 15. 15. 8. 2. -5. -11. -17. -22. -28. -34. -41. -47. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.4 117.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.43 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 10.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 285.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.2% 56.3% 48.2% 36.3% 24.1% 16.8% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 16.8% 21.9% 22.3% 5.3% 10.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 7.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.7% 26.4% 23.6% 13.9% 11.6% 5.8% 5.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##