* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIKO EP132019 09/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 49 52 52 49 47 46 43 39 35 31 26 20 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 49 52 52 49 47 46 43 39 35 31 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 37 38 40 39 36 33 31 28 24 21 18 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 9 9 5 4 13 9 9 13 10 15 20 23 29 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 3 1 7 6 11 6 5 1 0 5 SHEAR DIR 323 67 79 110 124 337 15 30 308 313 306 287 288 276 256 235 236 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.6 26.0 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.3 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 136 133 134 128 124 122 128 122 115 117 119 122 125 118 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -53.2 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 70 67 61 59 56 55 55 53 50 41 35 30 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 20 21 21 20 19 19 18 16 13 11 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 27 40 46 41 45 45 50 37 17 21 25 39 36 59 50 47 26 200 MB DIV 39 28 46 47 45 15 -6 -7 -24 5 5 3 8 5 11 1 1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 1 -3 -8 1 0 -2 2 5 6 3 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 834 874 921 963 992 1060 1149 1244 1299 1374 1442 1527 1656 1829 1969 2053 2007 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.7 116.5 117.3 118.1 119.7 121.2 122.7 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 6 6 6 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 17. 16. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 17. 14. 12. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -9. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 114.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 22.5% 17.2% 12.6% 8.7% 11.8% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 10.1% 5.6% 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 10.9% 7.6% 4.7% 3.2% 4.4% 5.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132019 KIKO 09/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##