* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092019 09/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 52 61 68 72 74 79 82 75 75 79 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 52 61 68 72 74 79 82 75 75 79 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 47 53 60 67 72 72 67 64 63 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 11 9 11 10 14 12 22 24 30 33 42 42 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -4 -3 -1 -4 1 0 2 -1 6 1 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 225 234 256 251 239 252 214 239 206 231 234 232 228 245 244 254 264 SST (C) 28.5 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 29.4 29.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 151 151 148 143 157 158 139 143 146 146 149 148 148 142 137 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 133 133 130 125 134 132 116 121 123 123 123 122 121 118 113 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 -54.8 -56.2 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 6 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 54 58 58 62 56 55 49 49 43 38 31 26 17 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 14 13 16 18 19 21 22 26 29 28 31 37 48 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 5 0 15 -26 8 -21 -6 10 16 48 60 77 74 -31 -81 200 MB DIV 16 33 3 10 21 24 33 22 45 26 17 52 34 32 21 -47 -29 700-850 TADV 0 -2 1 3 8 7 5 6 2 -2 -3 -8 -7 0 1 -24 -19 LAND (KM) 495 458 369 288 219 173 172 251 298 384 455 554 637 702 751 815 775 LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.8 27.3 28.6 29.7 30.6 31.1 31.4 31.6 31.9 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 75.6 76.4 77.1 77.9 78.9 79.3 78.8 77.2 75.2 73.4 71.6 70.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 8 9 8 7 5 6 8 8 8 6 6 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 61 49 37 36 65 51 31 36 29 22 26 35 30 24 19 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 439 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -8. -15. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 14. 16. 13. 17. 22. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 27. 36. 43. 47. 49. 54. 57. 50. 50. 54. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.4 74.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.5% 9.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 8.7% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 5.8% 14.3% 16.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.7% 4.7% 3.0% 0.2% 2.0% 8.6% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 NINE 09/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 NINE 09/13/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 43 52 61 68 72 74 79 82 75 75 79 90 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 40 49 58 65 69 71 76 79 72 72 76 87 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 43 52 59 63 65 70 73 66 66 70 81 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 34 43 50 54 56 61 64 57 57 61 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT