* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/08/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 56 56 53 47 39 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 56 56 53 47 39 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 56 52 47 41 34 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 16 18 23 29 38 57 73 68 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 2 0 7 4 4 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 144 156 171 183 194 202 217 228 235 246 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 26.7 26.1 25.3 23.3 19.8 16.7 15.1 13.1 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 123 117 111 98 84 78 76 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 105 102 96 87 78 74 73 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -54.5 -53.7 -52.6 -50.5 -47.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 -1.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 45 45 39 38 51 51 56 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 15 16 15 16 17 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -36 -47 -48 -31 -57 -63 -64 -68 0 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 35 35 29 39 41 70 32 29 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -2 -9 -13 -25 -39 -19 -52 -77 -51 -95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1382 1251 1125 1025 950 1017 1309 1368 668 194 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.9 37.2 38.6 40.0 42.6 45.4 48.6 52.2 56.1 59.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.3 48.8 48.4 47.1 45.8 41.6 36.0 28.8 20.1 10.5 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 17 19 23 27 31 34 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -18. -27. -35. -42. -48. -57. -63. -66. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -4. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -8. -16. -31. -42. -55. -59. -65. -75. -79. -80. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 34.6 49.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 449.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.46 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.3% 9.9% 7.6% 6.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 10.6% 5.9% 3.2% 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.3% 5.3% 3.6% 2.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/08/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 56 56 53 47 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 53 50 44 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 47 41 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 42 36 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT