* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/07/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 50 53 53 48 30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 50 53 53 48 30 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 48 48 48 47 41 32 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 19 21 21 18 25 40 57 78 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -1 0 0 1 -1 6 3 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 104 116 127 148 185 182 205 220 230 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.4 29.2 28.3 28.0 27.3 25.5 22.8 18.1 16.1 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 159 156 141 137 130 113 96 80 76 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 138 133 120 116 111 98 86 75 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -54.0 -53.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 40 43 42 40 31 26 33 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 19 19 17 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -15 -32 -39 -36 -54 -15 -38 -43 -56 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -6 -10 -5 10 42 44 25 10 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -5 -15 -13 -2 -25 -20 -92 -119 -124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1803 1690 1581 1456 1332 1072 907 1026 1378 1238 688 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.3 33.0 34.1 35.1 37.7 40.6 43.4 46.4 49.6 52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.9 48.1 48.6 49.1 48.4 45.6 40.9 34.7 27.5 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 12 16 20 25 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 21 20 16 14 8 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 348 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -11. -21. -34. -41. -47. -56. -62. -64. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -20. -28. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 8. 3. -15. -29. -41. -42. -47. -55. -59. -60. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.5 45.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.48 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 394.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.8% 8.6% 6.5% 5.9% 8.9% 9.1% 5.2% Logistic: 2.8% 3.8% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.6% 3.7% 2.4% 2.0% 3.4% 3.2% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/07/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 49 50 53 53 48 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 51 51 46 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 46 46 41 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 39 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT