* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/07/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 28 26 25 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 28 26 25 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 29 26 25 22 21 20 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 7 11 15 22 32 42 48 51 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 -1 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 2 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 202 235 241 230 228 256 251 246 249 253 254 252 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.8 25.2 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 102 107 108 107 108 111 115 120 122 123 124 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 34 35 35 30 31 29 30 31 33 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 14 13 13 10 9 7 7 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -41 -43 -41 -40 -52 -53 -46 -40 -38 -29 -16 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -13 -6 4 21 7 11 11 21 29 27 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 3 2 2 2 2 3 -1 2 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1243 1340 1428 1492 1561 1718 1878 1859 1661 1494 1342 1200 1052 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.7 128.8 129.9 131.0 133.2 135.3 137.4 139.4 141.1 142.7 144.2 145.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. -7. -17. -26. -32. -38. -39. -42. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -19. -25. -32. -37. -42. -47. -50. -54. -60. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.8 126.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 397.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/07/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##