* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 45 42 37 33 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 45 42 37 33 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 50 45 42 36 32 29 27 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 2 6 7 9 11 14 21 29 40 47 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 1 0 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 73 172 211 226 229 259 250 256 257 258 254 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.3 23.4 23.8 24.1 24.0 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 95 96 101 104 102 107 110 113 116 120 123 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 38 35 34 29 30 28 30 29 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 16 15 14 11 10 8 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -23 -28 -39 -38 -38 -51 -47 -47 -27 -45 -31 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -10 -6 -4 -8 -2 20 2 3 -3 21 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 2 0 -1 2 4 -1 3 4 -1 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1072 1151 1233 1332 1432 1548 1705 1856 1925 1745 1582 1423 1260 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.5 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 23.9 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.9 24.1 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.5 126.5 127.6 128.7 130.8 132.9 134.9 136.7 138.5 140.2 141.9 143.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -21. -27. -28. -30. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -12. -17. -18. -19. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -18. -23. -27. -31. -38. -44. -52. -58. -63. -67. -70. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.2 124.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##