* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/06/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 26 27 27 32 38 42 41 41 42 42 43 43 40 37 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 26 27 27 32 38 42 41 41 42 42 43 43 40 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 24 23 22 22 23 23 23 22 22 23 24 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 14 8 6 5 11 15 20 17 24 22 26 23 25 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 4 1 11 5 -1 0 4 0 0 3 -3 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 294 300 313 326 315 300 268 268 273 269 257 269 277 287 263 261 250 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 155 156 158 157 154 155 154 155 155 155 157 156 156 155 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 61 60 56 58 61 61 61 60 56 58 60 64 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 14 14 12 12 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 44 47 42 44 16 13 10 12 0 5 20 33 29 39 21 18 200 MB DIV 54 70 77 61 66 10 18 38 47 44 23 51 26 12 35 27 10 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -7 -5 -1 0 2 1 0 5 2 -4 -5 0 -2 2 3 LAND (KM) 1110 1051 993 939 894 792 767 866 957 1104 1329 1565 1804 2058 2262 2426 2580 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.0 150.0 151.0 152.0 153.0 155.4 158.3 161.6 165.2 168.6 171.7 174.4 176.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 11 14 16 17 18 17 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 46 47 47 63 53 38 59 64 65 51 40 60 50 45 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 777 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -4. -3. -3. 2. 8. 12. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 10. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 149.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.13 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.41 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.69 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.4% 9.0% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##