* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AKONI EP122019 09/06/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 43 44 44 45 44 41 40 39 39 40 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 43 44 44 45 44 41 40 39 39 40 40 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 41 41 40 39 38 34 31 29 28 26 26 25 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 21 24 17 11 9 10 17 19 25 22 26 26 25 26 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 4 5 0 5 12 4 -1 1 0 0 2 -1 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 269 282 295 318 318 300 250 272 259 277 262 262 261 272 250 253 248 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.1 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 154 154 154 154 158 152 152 152 155 155 154 155 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 65 63 62 60 56 56 56 57 57 58 60 60 62 60 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 47 54 59 65 41 20 12 16 -9 -16 -8 0 8 26 26 20 200 MB DIV 73 69 75 86 88 19 1 13 40 26 36 34 32 26 31 10 3 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -4 -1 2 8 15 11 6 0 -1 -3 0 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1263 1198 1136 1069 1006 839 699 634 758 838 987 1190 1406 1602 1802 2012 2210 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.3 147.1 147.9 148.9 149.8 152.1 154.7 157.8 161.2 164.6 167.7 170.5 173.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 12 15 16 17 17 14 13 11 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 30 30 33 46 61 54 40 36 69 47 65 30 39 51 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.6 146.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.3% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 4.5% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 AKONI 09/06/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##