* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 74 69 63 53 46 40 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 74 69 63 53 46 40 33 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 67 61 50 42 36 32 29 26 23 21 19 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 5 4 4 6 12 13 16 26 37 46 38 31 29 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 1 0 0 2 -2 -3 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 282 329 331 17 310 249 265 271 266 249 256 247 255 254 271 284 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.6 24.0 23.5 23.6 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 109 103 97 98 105 106 106 107 110 113 115 117 119 118 119 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 48 44 43 42 41 38 34 33 33 32 34 36 34 36 39 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 20 20 19 16 14 12 10 9 8 6 5 5 7 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 -9 -22 -27 -34 -34 -39 -52 -41 -36 -31 -34 -43 -38 -30 -40 200 MB DIV -3 -26 -42 -28 -18 5 -12 -7 -3 11 24 17 31 1 -8 13 -1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -6 -1 3 2 6 2 6 7 6 7 6 9 4 10 2 LAND (KM) 946 974 1014 1080 1153 1317 1488 1602 1738 1866 1984 1865 1748 1658 1572 1493 1420 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.5 23.3 23.2 23.2 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.3 123.2 124.3 125.3 127.3 129.2 131.1 132.9 134.5 136.0 137.2 138.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -14. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. -36. -38. -40. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -7. -13. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -20. -21. -20. -18. -15. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -17. -27. -34. -40. -47. -51. -55. -61. -67. -70. -71. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.5 121.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 742.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##