* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 41 50 55 55 53 53 55 57 59 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 41 50 55 55 53 53 55 57 59 60 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 29 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 4 5 9 9 8 1 7 11 19 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 1 5 2 3 2 9 7 3 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 181 213 230 300 311 329 50 260 260 271 282 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 154 153 152 153 156 154 154 153 153 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 66 64 63 61 58 57 58 63 63 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 10 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 19 38 41 43 38 23 21 4 12 1 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 52 78 76 78 64 34 -3 20 17 50 80 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -5 -3 0 1 6 8 15 13 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1545 1485 1426 1367 1310 1188 1027 845 685 614 698 831 952 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.5 144.2 145.0 145.7 147.3 149.3 151.6 154.3 157.2 160.2 163.5 166.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 9 11 12 14 15 16 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 22 22 27 29 48 57 50 55 30 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. 43. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 16. 25. 30. 30. 28. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 142.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.7% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 15.2% 48.6% 34.9% 21.1% 2.8% 12.1% 3.6% 12.3% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 5.7% 24.5% 17.7% 7.1% 0.9% 4.1% 6.9% 4.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##