* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 90 86 78 71 66 55 38 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 90 86 78 71 66 45 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 97 93 89 85 83 80 64 48 36 29 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 14 17 20 30 44 51 68 52 42 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 2 2 3 12 2 11 1 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 174 205 234 230 215 228 201 198 201 207 220 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 24.8 18.4 15.4 9.1 11.1 9.1 10.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 134 131 129 130 108 79 73 68 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 114 112 112 114 97 74 70 67 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.9 -50.1 -50.2 -49.4 -48.1 -48.7 -48.3 -48.2 -48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.8 3.3 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 8 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 42 42 44 48 52 49 49 52 55 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 35 36 34 34 36 39 46 47 42 34 28 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 35 40 61 66 52 94 162 174 179 226 215 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 68 35 32 71 79 102 136 85 77 62 47 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 -2 0 4 3 20 7 -35 -65 -28 -57 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 82 46 42 43 258 208 56 -4 77 487 995 1485 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.8 33.5 34.4 35.2 37.3 40.3 44.0 47.8 51.2 54.2 56.8 59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 78.6 77.9 76.8 75.7 72.5 68.3 63.7 59.2 54.6 48.7 41.6 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 15 19 24 25 24 23 24 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 21 17 12 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -28. -40. -51. -59. -66. -72. -76. -78. -79. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -27. -27. -26. -28. -29. -30. -31. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -14. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 7. 8. 0. -11. -20. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -10. -14. -21. -29. -34. -45. -62. -80. -94.-106.-111.-115.-119.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 32.1 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 785.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 10( 42) 6( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 97 95 90 86 78 71 66 45 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 92 88 80 73 68 47 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 87 79 72 67 46 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 78 71 66 45 34 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 73 66 61 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 97 88 82 79 73 66 61 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 97 95 86 80 76 69 64 43 32 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS