* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 71 67 58 48 40 34 30 28 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 71 67 58 48 40 34 30 28 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 72 67 62 53 44 37 31 28 26 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 2 1 6 4 3 2 6 10 19 32 42 45 47 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 2 0 0 -2 -1 0 -4 1 -1 6 2 -1 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 203 226 103 142 205 344 32 279 242 268 239 241 245 256 266 284 292 SST (C) 26.6 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.2 23.4 23.8 24.4 24.6 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.4 25.9 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 120 115 111 110 104 96 100 106 108 106 108 113 117 122 122 121 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.9 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 50 47 45 42 37 33 32 33 35 32 29 25 27 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 24 22 21 19 17 14 12 10 9 8 6 4 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 27 16 11 -22 -22 -37 -20 -36 -43 -36 0 0 -7 -15 -23 200 MB DIV -7 -8 -10 -6 -19 -37 -34 -18 -14 -9 15 8 -2 13 -18 -21 -36 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 1 1 0 3 5 2 3 4 2 0 -6 -8 0 -2 LAND (KM) 854 887 926 943 963 1061 1211 1368 1532 1652 1780 1915 1938 1728 1554 1400 1251 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.8 23.3 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.6 120.4 121.2 122.1 124.0 126.0 127.8 129.5 131.2 132.9 134.5 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -41. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 1. -5. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -17. -20. -21. -22. -23. -22. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -13. -21. -32. -40. -46. -50. -52. -55. -60. -64. -69. -74. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.9 118.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 654.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.1% 2.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 6.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##