* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/05/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 95 90 84 77 72 61 46 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 95 90 84 77 72 55 39 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 101 98 93 89 85 84 69 46 38 31 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 18 15 12 15 25 43 53 63 58 54 48 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 4 2 9 1 2 3 1 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 168 173 171 198 238 220 226 213 207 203 216 224 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.9 26.4 19.0 17.3 9.9 10.9 9.2 9.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 143 138 134 133 138 122 82 78 69 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 119 116 114 114 121 109 76 73 68 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.3 -49.7 -49.6 -49.5 -49.8 -49.9 -50.1 -48.8 -48.4 -49.1 -48.3 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 10 8 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 40 41 41 45 53 53 56 51 58 60 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 36 36 34 37 40 45 46 44 36 31 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 20 39 40 64 49 60 117 147 158 221 232 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 78 62 31 31 89 87 99 120 89 132 89 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 5 -3 1 1 8 1 56 -71 -78 -93 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 134 98 67 52 52 161 283 100 15 49 470 963 1436 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.1 32.7 33.5 34.2 36.2 38.9 42.6 46.9 51.1 54.3 56.7 59.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.2 78.8 77.9 77.0 74.0 70.1 65.5 60.3 55.1 49.0 42.1 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 18 23 27 27 26 24 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 28 21 17 13 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -14. -26. -37. -48. -57. -64. -70. -73. -75. -76. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -26. -26. -28. -29. -31. -32. -34. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. 1. 6. 8. 4. -8. -16. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -10. -16. -23. -28. -39. -54. -75. -90.-104.-108.-112.-116.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.4 79.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 841.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 2.6% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 12( 46) 9( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 98 95 90 84 77 72 55 39 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 94 89 83 76 71 54 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 88 82 75 70 53 37 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 79 72 67 50 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 68 63 46 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 79 72 67 50 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 100 98 89 83 79 72 67 50 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS