* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 48 54 60 61 59 57 57 60 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 48 54 60 61 59 57 57 60 62 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 35 36 34 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 4 5 4 3 6 3 9 11 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 1 -2 0 1 6 2 8 7 5 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 277 78 123 122 19 280 311 291 261 258 268 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 155 155 155 152 151 154 153 154 150 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 7 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 61 62 63 63 60 59 56 58 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 15 11 15 24 44 39 41 29 17 7 7 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 75 64 58 84 91 55 26 18 25 24 41 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 2 6 12 18 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1674 1620 1569 1518 1468 1358 1217 1047 840 649 538 603 680 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.1 141.8 142.5 143.2 143.8 145.2 146.8 148.7 151.2 154.0 156.8 159.8 162.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 9 11 13 14 15 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 21 21 23 24 22 36 46 54 63 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 40. 42. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 23. 29. 35. 36. 34. 32. 32. 35. 38. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.2 141.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.3% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 0.0% Logistic: 13.0% 55.9% 37.5% 26.1% 5.1% 34.6% 14.2% 18.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 28.1% 19.2% 8.8% 1.7% 11.5% 13.0% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122019 TWELVE 09/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##