* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 74 71 62 53 43 38 33 29 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 74 71 62 53 43 38 33 29 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 74 70 65 56 47 39 33 28 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 1 2 1 7 7 2 5 9 11 21 31 37 38 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 -2 -2 2 6 3 -3 -1 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 247 186 274 96 216 328 16 61 246 273 254 250 253 266 271 292 316 SST (C) 27.5 27.0 26.4 25.7 25.1 24.7 23.8 23.6 24.2 24.6 24.3 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.8 26.0 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 127 120 114 110 100 98 104 108 105 105 110 114 121 123 124 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.9 -53.7 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 56 52 52 51 49 44 43 39 35 34 36 38 33 29 24 21 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 23 22 19 18 15 13 11 9 8 7 5 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 29 30 27 28 23 -12 -28 -31 -31 -23 -35 -41 -19 -9 -13 -23 -38 200 MB DIV -7 -7 -3 -1 -5 -33 -44 -22 -8 -4 -3 0 -16 -22 -16 -41 -20 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -3 2 -4 3 0 6 3 6 2 -3 -7 -11 -10 -4 LAND (KM) 839 862 894 937 953 1028 1149 1307 1467 1615 1746 1900 1950 1760 1591 1452 1328 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.4 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.9 119.6 120.5 121.4 123.3 125.2 127.1 128.8 130.6 132.4 134.4 136.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -18. -23. -26. -29. -33. -35. -37. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. -0. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -27. -37. -42. -47. -51. -53. -57. -62. -66. -71. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.5 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 623.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.3% 2.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 6.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##