* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 42 41 41 39 40 41 41 41 41 38 36 34 38 40 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 42 41 41 39 40 41 41 41 41 38 36 34 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 41 38 37 35 34 35 37 39 40 40 41 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 20 23 25 29 29 9 9 12 19 22 23 27 33 53 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 1 5 4 2 -2 2 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 2 5 12 SHEAR DIR 208 206 209 204 213 209 215 215 153 147 169 175 188 193 187 199 209 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 27.2 28.1 29.0 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.1 26.8 25.0 22.6 17.0 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 119 118 119 127 139 153 143 144 138 125 123 108 94 77 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 107 106 107 115 126 136 125 123 116 104 103 94 85 73 70 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.3 -54.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 42 41 42 41 40 39 39 48 52 56 64 65 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 19 18 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 9 9 10 18 27 850 MB ENV VOR 51 42 38 31 22 18 13 3 -29 -56 -45 -58 -34 -2 23 30 63 200 MB DIV 62 41 19 30 14 1 -32 -27 -31 -11 20 30 51 87 100 93 85 700-850 TADV 15 17 18 18 18 13 7 1 4 -3 0 -3 5 12 -16 28 -17 LAND (KM) 1783 1833 1884 1952 2025 2198 2411 2191 1935 1703 1497 1303 1111 960 956 1208 1452 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.9 23.5 25.2 27.0 29.0 30.7 32.3 33.9 35.6 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.2 34.7 35.2 35.9 36.6 38.2 40.1 42.1 44.3 46.3 47.6 48.1 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 13 12 10 9 9 12 18 25 28 26 HEAT CONTENT 8 4 3 2 1 7 12 17 14 14 10 6 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -20. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -24. -22. -12. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -7. -9. -11. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.2 34.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.0% 6.9% 5.2% 4.3% 6.5% 5.8% 9.4% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.4% 2.2% 2.0% 3.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/05/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 42 41 41 39 40 41 41 41 41 38 36 34 38 40 18HR AGO 45 44 44 41 40 40 38 39 40 40 40 40 37 35 33 37 39 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 37 37 35 36 37 37 37 37 34 32 30 34 36 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 32 33 34 34 34 34 31 29 27 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT