* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/05/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 99 97 94 86 82 79 71 54 38 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 101 99 97 94 86 82 79 71 46 33 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 102 101 96 90 83 85 79 60 41 34 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 18 15 13 17 34 49 54 73 58 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 1 3 3 11 4 7 0 -1 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 174 165 174 203 251 216 221 210 203 201 216 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.8 22.3 18.1 15.5 8.7 10.7 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 152 144 137 133 129 126 93 79 74 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 120 115 112 112 111 84 74 71 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.6 -49.9 -50.2 -49.1 -47.8 -48.1 -47.8 -47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.0 3.3 3.5 3.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 9 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 40 38 40 39 43 48 53 51 53 54 57 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 37 37 36 34 38 44 47 43 40 33 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 22 40 39 74 49 92 143 168 178 221 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 49 65 56 36 66 70 117 118 86 101 91 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 7 -1 11 -3 2 6 -30 -92 -25 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 156 120 70 64 34 43 271 210 25 -7 213 687 1188 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.7 32.3 33.0 33.6 35.2 37.5 40.6 44.4 48.5 52.1 55.2 58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.5 79.3 78.6 78.0 75.7 72.2 67.9 63.2 58.3 52.5 45.9 39.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 10 15 20 24 26 26 26 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 35 27 21 16 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -23. -34. -45. -53. -60. -66. -70. -72. -73. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. -29. -30. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. 0. 8. 12. 6. 1. -10. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -6. -14. -18. -21. -29. -46. -62. -79. -92. -97.-101.-105.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 31.0 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 835.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 3.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.9% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/05/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 16( 48) 10( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 99 97 94 86 82 79 71 46 33 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 95 92 84 80 77 69 44 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 91 83 79 76 68 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 79 75 72 64 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 73 69 66 58 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 79 75 72 64 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 99 90 84 80 76 73 65 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS