* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 79 76 72 65 56 47 39 35 31 29 26 23 20 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 79 76 72 65 56 47 39 35 31 29 26 23 20 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 76 71 67 57 49 42 35 31 28 27 24 22 19 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 1 1 2 6 1 3 7 5 14 21 32 37 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 2 4 0 -1 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 1 4 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 294 243 124 156 252 304 351 57 219 243 259 223 239 244 254 261 292 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.4 23.8 24.1 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 132 125 119 114 107 100 103 110 109 106 108 112 115 121 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 55 53 52 51 47 44 41 38 37 35 34 32 32 31 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 24 25 25 23 21 19 16 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 35 34 29 11 -19 -21 -28 -12 -29 -29 -23 -9 -7 -14 -31 200 MB DIV -13 -5 -5 -12 -2 -12 -34 -29 -33 -12 -5 7 -1 0 6 0 7 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 -6 -4 1 -1 1 4 1 4 3 4 4 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 821 842 871 913 955 1016 1129 1273 1447 1624 1764 1896 2007 1855 1706 1566 1429 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.7 22.4 22.8 22.8 22.6 22.5 22.5 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.3 119.0 119.9 120.7 122.5 124.5 126.4 128.3 130.1 132.0 134.0 135.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -25. -29. -32. -36. -38. -41. -43. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 6. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -23. -23. -22. -21. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -13. -20. -29. -38. -46. -50. -54. -56. -59. -62. -65. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.2 117.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 626.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 -1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 14.2% 13.0% 9.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.0% 4.8% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##