* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/04/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 44 40 39 41 43 45 45 45 43 41 38 39 42 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 44 40 39 41 43 45 45 45 43 41 38 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 44 40 39 37 36 37 39 42 44 44 44 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 20 22 28 30 22 5 4 12 15 23 28 40 50 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 1 2 6 2 2 -3 0 0 -1 1 0 0 1 8 2 SHEAR DIR 195 205 207 208 206 213 208 218 227 107 160 202 210 222 212 204 218 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.5 28.4 28.9 27.9 28.3 27.2 26.8 25.0 23.3 18.7 15.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 118 119 119 122 131 143 151 136 141 127 123 107 97 79 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 106 106 106 107 110 118 128 133 118 120 107 103 92 85 73 69 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 43 41 43 40 44 40 40 41 48 54 59 67 66 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 20 18 15 15 16 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 14 24 850 MB ENV VOR 40 52 43 39 29 14 15 15 -20 -61 -73 -63 -55 -55 -22 44 77 200 MB DIV 49 61 34 19 30 0 19 -33 -22 -20 -11 19 48 54 89 110 73 700-850 TADV 10 16 17 12 14 15 10 4 3 -1 -6 2 1 9 4 -10 17 LAND (KM) 1745 1794 1844 1905 1965 2109 2284 2384 2107 1845 1586 1348 1142 997 963 1096 1317 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.6 24.0 25.8 27.7 29.7 31.6 33.6 35.6 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.8 34.3 34.8 35.4 36.0 37.4 39.0 40.6 42.4 44.2 45.7 46.6 46.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 11 12 12 13 12 11 11 12 15 19 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 5 3 2 3 9 13 17 10 13 5 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -14. -17. -21. -23. -25. -25. -24. -16. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -6. -4. -2. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -6. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.7 33.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.37 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 374.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.0% 8.2% 5.9% 5.2% 7.2% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.0% 3.4% 2.1% 1.7% 2.5% 2.3% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 46 44 40 39 41 43 45 45 45 43 41 38 39 42 18HR AGO 45 44 44 44 42 38 37 39 41 43 43 43 41 39 36 37 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 39 35 34 36 38 40 40 40 38 36 33 34 37 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 29 28 30 32 34 34 34 32 30 27 28 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT