* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL082019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 39 39 38 39 45 47 51 49 49 47 47 46 38 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 39 39 38 39 45 47 51 49 49 47 47 46 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 39 40 38 35 34 33 32 33 35 37 39 41 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 17 19 23 26 35 15 5 10 11 11 19 32 49 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 1 3 3 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 3 6 6 2 SHEAR DIR 228 220 204 215 219 221 209 208 212 64 61 121 201 228 214 218 219 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.6 28.8 28.2 27.9 27.8 26.9 25.6 24.2 22.2 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 115 117 118 118 120 123 132 150 141 136 134 123 111 102 91 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 106 106 106 108 111 120 135 124 117 113 103 94 88 80 69 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -54.6 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 47 46 41 44 41 42 39 39 40 42 48 53 53 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 20 19 17 17 19 18 18 16 15 13 15 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 44 48 44 19 18 5 17 -27 -66 -97 -62 -54 -41 -27 2 200 MB DIV 42 30 35 38 17 15 15 0 -34 -34 -19 -12 24 61 71 98 84 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 9 10 17 15 16 3 4 -2 -4 -1 0 6 29 46 LAND (KM) 1720 1765 1811 1859 1908 2007 2129 2298 2314 2012 1736 1489 1264 1066 942 991 1133 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.2 22.4 24.0 26.1 28.3 30.6 32.7 34.6 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.4 33.9 34.4 34.9 35.4 36.4 37.6 39.1 40.8 42.5 44.1 45.5 46.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 9 11 12 14 13 12 10 10 13 17 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 10 16 10 11 9 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -10. -16. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -14. -11. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 10. 12. 16. 14. 14. 12. 12. 11. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.4 33.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.6% 6.7% 5.0% 4.0% 6.5% 5.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.3% 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 2.4% 2.1% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082019 GABRIELLE 09/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 39 39 38 39 45 47 51 49 49 47 47 46 38 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 37 37 36 37 43 45 49 47 47 45 45 44 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 33 32 33 39 41 45 43 43 41 41 40 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 25 31 33 37 35 35 33 33 32 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT