* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNAND AL072019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 45 44 40 40 43 46 48 49 50 51 52 52 54 56 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 39 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 13 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 91 79 91 95 87 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.1 29.3 28.6 28.4 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 155 144 141 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 150 137 126 123 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 13 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 67 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 10 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 18 0 -7 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 40 27 32 16 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 123 61 0 -61 -122 -253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.2 97.8 98.4 99.0 100.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 57 33 22 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 1. -1. -5. -5. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.0 96.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.88 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.1% 11.9% 8.3% 7.5% 11.2% 14.0% 26.1% Logistic: 11.6% 24.9% 17.2% 5.5% 2.0% 11.7% 19.7% 29.3% Bayesian: 5.9% 7.7% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4.3% 7.7% 85.3% Consensus: 8.1% 16.9% 11.3% 4.6% 3.2% 9.0% 13.8% 46.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072019 FERNAND 09/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 38 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 45 35 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 31 26 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT