* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 97 96 94 88 82 82 79 77 68 57 48 29 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 96 97 96 94 88 82 82 79 77 68 42 38 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 96 96 97 95 89 82 80 80 70 54 37 37 34 33 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 15 20 21 15 12 26 46 47 52 68 61 55 43 34 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -1 0 0 3 7 4 9 8 6 6 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 208 162 134 152 158 168 245 234 227 220 213 219 217 219 236 244 237 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 28.3 27.7 28.3 26.0 23.7 17.6 13.4 11.5 10.1 10.6 11.9 10.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 159 161 161 155 141 134 144 118 101 78 72 70 69 70 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 135 134 129 119 115 126 105 90 73 69 68 68 69 69 68 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.9 -50.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.0 -49.8 -49.5 -48.1 -47.7 -46.4 -47.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.4 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.9 0.9 1.3 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 10 8 10 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 50 48 46 41 40 44 46 52 52 52 53 46 49 55 64 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 37 36 35 33 31 34 38 43 43 43 45 39 33 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 4 14 9 47 65 23 51 80 122 150 195 232 246 242 235 200 MB DIV 42 51 71 61 40 51 36 70 95 108 114 85 76 72 52 18 -67 700-850 TADV 12 11 -1 2 0 7 -4 10 -4 19 24 15 -136 -62 -34 -16 -8 LAND (KM) 145 147 154 173 134 67 59 179 312 182 38 0 493 984 1466 985 663 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.5 30.1 30.8 31.4 32.7 34.2 36.2 38.8 41.9 45.5 49.4 52.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.5 79.7 79.6 79.6 78.8 76.8 73.8 69.7 65.0 60.1 54.7 48.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 13 18 22 24 26 26 26 26 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 66 59 63 59 41 24 15 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -14. -20. -27. -35. -41. -48. -54. -59. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -5. -4. -7. -10. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -5. -1. 5. 4. 3. 5. -4. -12. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -1. -7. -12. -13. -16. -18. -27. -38. -47. -66. -81. -99.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.8 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 690.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.21 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 14.4% 10.3% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 6.0% 4.4% 3.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 20( 34) 16( 44) 11( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 97 96 94 88 82 82 79 77 68 42 38 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 95 94 92 86 80 80 77 75 66 40 36 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 90 88 82 76 76 73 71 62 36 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 83 77 71 71 68 66 57 31 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 70 64 64 61 59 50 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 74 68 68 65 63 54 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 96 97 88 82 78 72 72 69 67 58 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS