* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/04/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 101 98 95 85 75 65 56 49 42 37 31 27 24 22 21 V (KT) LAND 105 103 101 98 95 85 75 65 56 49 42 37 31 27 24 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 96 91 85 73 62 53 45 39 33 29 25 22 19 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 5 2 2 4 2 6 0 8 15 24 30 38 34 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 5 1 2 0 0 -4 1 0 4 0 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 269 262 257 273 198 230 33 338 67 245 249 249 240 245 251 264 283 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.1 25.8 25.1 24.4 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.2 24.2 24.8 25.1 25.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 134 121 114 107 100 102 106 104 105 111 113 116 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 57 54 53 50 46 45 41 38 39 37 33 31 32 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 27 27 26 23 21 20 17 15 13 11 9 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 23 39 46 52 44 26 -4 -17 -25 -25 -30 -41 -32 -27 -21 -26 200 MB DIV 33 12 -15 -18 -7 -13 -10 -21 -24 3 -1 1 -8 -7 -9 -6 10 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 6 0 7 5 6 5 4 10 7 LAND (KM) 763 770 784 815 855 950 1017 1118 1259 1405 1546 1658 1800 1971 1788 1644 1506 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.3 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.5 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.6 117.2 118.0 118.8 120.5 122.3 124.3 126.3 128.1 129.9 131.7 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 10 10 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -11. -20. -29. -38. -45. -50. -55. -58. -60. -63. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. -0. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -19. -18. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -20. -30. -40. -49. -56. -63. -68. -74. -78. -81. -83. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.8 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 676.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.16 -0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 13.5% 12.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.1% 4.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/04/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##