* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 112 109 105 94 82 70 59 52 45 39 34 29 24 20 18 V (KT) LAND 110 113 112 109 105 94 82 70 59 52 45 39 34 29 24 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 110 113 112 106 99 86 74 63 53 45 39 34 30 26 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 5 5 2 7 4 7 2 7 17 25 29 34 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 1 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 311 294 280 278 277 177 269 334 328 325 261 245 256 254 260 259 264 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.9 25.7 25.0 24.3 23.9 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 141 139 132 120 113 106 101 104 104 104 106 108 110 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 59 58 53 52 49 45 41 39 36 33 30 25 20 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 24 20 19 16 14 13 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 10 21 34 44 45 22 -3 -18 -22 -29 -31 -42 -34 -35 -31 200 MB DIV 31 16 30 5 -8 -4 -25 -16 -15 -15 -3 -18 -6 -12 -18 -31 -13 700-850 TADV 0 7 5 3 -1 -1 -5 -4 0 2 2 2 2 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 716 744 773 790 813 886 994 1061 1175 1322 1486 1589 1684 1789 1894 1886 1758 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.4 23.7 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.5 119.1 120.9 122.8 124.9 127.0 129.0 130.9 132.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -21. -30. -39. -46. -53. -57. -60. -63. -66. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -7. -9. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -5. -16. -28. -40. -51. -58. -65. -71. -76. -81. -86. -90. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.2 114.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 633.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.20 -1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 17.4% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 5.3% 5.9% 3.4% 2.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 7.6% 7.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##