* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 75 78 81 84 81 75 68 62 55 50 44 36 29 24 21 V (KT) LAND 65 70 75 78 81 84 81 75 68 62 55 50 44 36 29 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 75 76 76 73 67 61 54 48 42 36 30 24 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 5 8 8 5 2 4 5 2 2 8 20 26 28 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 2 -1 4 3 0 0 -1 3 1 4 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 311 341 334 324 319 299 255 249 325 54 145 188 206 225 240 236 243 SST (C) 28.9 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.2 25.3 24.3 23.8 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 147 144 142 142 139 135 126 116 106 101 106 104 104 105 106 111 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 65 63 60 56 52 49 46 47 46 39 32 29 25 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 22 23 25 24 23 21 20 18 16 13 9 5 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 8 3 -3 4 28 42 49 28 10 -5 0 -11 -6 -6 -16 -32 200 MB DIV 39 43 42 38 0 12 -6 0 -26 -19 9 24 17 -14 -7 -42 -19 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 -2 4 4 5 0 -7 -2 0 7 6 7 2 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 722 718 727 752 785 816 884 994 1078 1179 1324 1513 1617 1713 1819 1932 1842 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.2 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.7 114.5 115.3 116.0 117.3 118.8 120.6 122.7 124.8 126.9 129.2 131.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 13 10 9 11 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 3. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 16. 19. 16. 10. 3. -3. -10. -15. -21. -29. -36. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.0 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.45 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.3% 35.5% 27.8% 19.7% 12.7% 17.4% 14.1% 0.0% Logistic: 18.1% 24.7% 13.9% 8.9% 3.1% 7.2% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 3.0% 5.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.1% 21.7% 14.2% 9.7% 5.3% 8.2% 5.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##