* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 134 130 127 125 122 118 113 110 100 96 100 100 89 68 46 27 V (KT) LAND 140 134 130 127 125 122 118 113 110 100 96 100 100 89 51 34 15 V (KT) LGEM 140 132 128 125 124 122 117 115 109 97 89 86 76 57 37 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 12 14 13 4 12 16 22 26 34 46 61 51 52 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -8 -3 0 -3 0 -2 7 1 -4 1 9 4 SHEAR DIR 315 327 314 290 297 253 227 183 190 189 220 216 218 211 208 231 238 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.2 27.4 27.5 21.9 19.0 14.4 11.4 9.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 168 169 164 164 161 153 140 131 134 91 82 73 71 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 143 142 142 138 139 136 129 120 113 118 84 77 70 69 68 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.7 -49.1 -48.1 -47.9 -48.4 -48.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 7 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 64 62 60 54 51 45 42 48 48 43 40 45 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 28 31 35 35 35 37 35 35 40 47 46 37 26 19 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 27 15 12 22 -11 13 41 74 81 102 146 212 234 187 211 200 MB DIV 28 32 11 8 12 46 27 82 73 79 97 90 113 76 71 48 29 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 1 0 3 7 0 -3 -7 -3 17 3 -19 -89 -88 -65 LAND (KM) 184 159 134 118 107 103 105 170 112 76 102 332 274 23 -44 407 882 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.3 28.2 29.4 30.7 32.2 33.8 35.6 37.7 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.2 78.5 78.7 78.9 79.1 79.5 79.9 79.7 78.7 77.1 74.6 71.3 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 7 9 12 15 20 26 29 28 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 83 87 87 84 79 59 50 54 40 22 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -2. -3. -5. -12. -23. -37. -49. -61. -70. -75. -82. -91. -98.-103.-105. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -9. -4. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 8. 5. 4. 11. 19. 16. 4. -10. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. -27. -30. -40. -44. -40. -40. -51. -72. -94.-113. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 26.7 78.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 568.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/02/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 54 43( 74) 38( 84) 34( 89) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 62 65( 87) 42( 92) 26( 94) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 140 134 130 127 125 122 118 113 110 100 96 100 100 89 51 34 15 18HR AGO 140 139 135 132 130 127 123 118 115 105 101 105 105 94 56 39 20 12HR AGO 140 137 136 133 131 128 124 119 116 106 102 106 106 95 57 40 21 6HR AGO 140 134 131 130 128 125 121 116 113 103 99 103 103 92 54 37 18 NOW 140 131 125 122 121 118 114 109 106 96 92 96 96 85 47 30 DIS IN 6HR 140 134 125 119 116 114 110 105 102 92 88 92 92 81 43 26 DIS IN 12HR 140 134 130 121 115 111 107 102 99 89 85 89 89 78 40 23 DIS