* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 75 79 83 82 77 72 68 62 59 52 44 36 30 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 75 79 83 82 77 72 68 62 59 52 44 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 66 68 72 74 73 69 63 58 54 50 43 35 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 7 8 10 4 4 5 1 3 3 13 19 27 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 2 -1 1 -5 -1 1 3 4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 309 320 314 333 326 293 311 277 247 314 106 100 168 191 202 224 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.8 26.1 25.3 24.8 24.2 24.4 24.2 24.3 24.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 152 145 143 142 139 131 124 116 111 105 107 105 106 108 115 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 65 65 62 61 57 53 51 48 48 44 41 37 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 21 24 24 27 27 25 23 22 19 19 15 11 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 12 5 4 0 28 45 41 31 19 -6 -10 -17 -1 2 -9 200 MB DIV 46 32 40 24 33 11 11 12 -19 -9 0 7 28 5 6 13 -19 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -2 -6 2 -1 2 2 -5 0 -4 9 5 7 6 -3 LAND (KM) 770 756 741 747 769 829 872 947 1067 1146 1260 1386 1545 1645 1761 1917 1770 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.2 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.3 113.3 114.2 115.1 116.6 118.0 119.5 121.3 123.2 125.3 127.3 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 18 11 9 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 8. 10. 9. 6. 4. 0. -0. -4. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 20. 24. 28. 27. 22. 17. 13. 7. 4. -3. -11. -19. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 111.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 42.8% 33.0% 21.0% 12.9% 16.8% 16.2% 12.0% Logistic: 11.0% 26.2% 12.6% 8.0% 4.4% 5.1% 2.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 24.3% 15.5% 9.8% 5.9% 7.4% 6.2% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##