* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 65 69 77 81 79 78 73 67 61 57 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 65 69 77 81 79 78 73 67 61 57 51 45 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 61 65 70 73 74 72 65 58 52 46 41 36 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 10 9 7 8 7 6 2 6 2 5 10 20 16 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 2 -2 0 0 2 1 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 289 312 324 312 336 302 291 309 251 292 282 262 225 241 249 269 281 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.7 26.5 25.2 24.5 23.7 23.7 24.1 24.1 24.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 154 146 144 142 140 128 115 108 100 99 103 104 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 66 65 64 61 60 54 51 48 45 42 35 24 17 14 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 23 22 25 27 26 26 25 22 19 17 14 10 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -2 8 15 10 5 3 18 45 46 31 16 2 2 9 12 2 -46 200 MB DIV 54 51 42 17 24 23 30 11 11 -20 -10 3 0 -10 -44 -23 -25 700-850 TADV 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 3 -4 1 -3 -1 0 3 1 -12 -13 -6 LAND (KM) 723 766 766 747 744 782 834 877 959 1043 1123 1241 1377 1483 1574 1721 1888 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.4 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.1 112.1 113.0 113.9 115.5 117.0 118.3 119.9 121.6 123.6 125.8 127.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 21 13 10 11 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 10. 11. 9. 5. 1. -1. -5. -8. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 19. 27. 31. 29. 28. 23. 17. 11. 7. 1. -5. -11. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.1 110.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 35.7% 27.8% 18.1% 12.5% 16.1% 17.0% 13.0% Logistic: 6.4% 19.0% 8.5% 5.2% 2.6% 5.8% 4.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 19.6% 12.4% 7.8% 5.1% 7.4% 7.3% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##