* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIETTE EP112019 09/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 65 72 79 88 90 86 83 77 70 66 59 54 48 42 36 V (KT) LAND 50 58 65 72 79 88 90 86 83 77 70 66 59 54 48 42 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 66 71 76 83 85 85 82 76 67 60 52 45 39 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 9 12 4 7 9 7 5 5 4 4 8 18 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 -3 0 -3 0 -3 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 241 252 276 303 307 302 281 251 267 179 191 159 234 174 185 198 214 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.3 25.2 24.5 23.7 23.5 24.0 24.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 157 157 145 144 141 140 126 115 108 99 97 102 103 105 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 67 67 65 62 58 56 52 47 43 41 38 34 26 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 20 23 24 24 26 24 23 23 19 17 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 -1 10 14 14 11 21 52 64 55 40 20 2 11 -9 -37 200 MB DIV 28 54 58 45 36 36 21 40 14 17 -12 -7 7 18 0 0 0 700-850 TADV 3 5 3 -3 -4 0 -4 1 -2 3 0 -5 0 1 1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 695 698 724 776 772 755 790 830 884 969 1056 1115 1206 1308 1450 1556 1665 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.6 21.5 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.2 111.3 112.3 114.1 115.6 117.1 118.5 120.1 121.8 123.6 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 22 24 24 12 10 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 13. 11. 10. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 9. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 29. 38. 40. 36. 33. 27. 20. 16. 9. 4. -2. -8. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.9 108.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 15.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 14.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 11.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -11.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 11.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 9.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.6% 64.6% 59.6% 52.4% 36.1% 29.6% 50.0% 17.4% Logistic: 47.1% 55.8% 43.6% 31.2% 24.6% 27.1% 17.2% 9.1% Bayesian: 35.4% 57.6% 29.0% 14.9% 9.6% 14.1% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 40.7% 59.3% 44.1% 32.8% 23.5% 23.6% 23.0% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112019 JULIETTE 09/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##