* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/31/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 121 120 118 115 116 114 116 115 115 111 109 106 100 90 81 V (KT) LAND 120 122 121 120 118 115 116 114 116 115 115 111 109 106 100 90 81 V (KT) LGEM 120 123 123 121 119 118 117 115 117 114 104 98 93 89 79 66 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 7 12 7 12 10 13 12 19 22 33 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 0 0 -3 0 -6 -2 0 -5 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 290 309 325 317 313 317 293 307 267 243 248 192 214 204 218 216 223 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 30.0 30.2 29.3 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.4 28.0 27.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 156 157 160 159 167 169 155 147 150 151 142 137 133 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 134 135 136 137 134 140 144 131 124 126 128 121 117 112 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -50.7 -50.2 -49.5 -49.7 -49.8 -49.9 -50.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 10 8 6 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 60 59 64 62 64 60 57 54 50 48 48 47 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 18 20 21 22 26 26 31 32 36 34 34 34 33 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -30 -9 2 -3 22 7 27 18 33 14 33 52 87 69 49 14 200 MB DIV 27 11 29 16 9 27 13 28 22 43 22 62 43 111 69 39 -4 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 0 1 -2 -1 0 1 3 9 1 -1 0 -3 2 -3 LAND (KM) 630 613 606 544 463 322 224 157 96 36 12 29 64 56 38 121 289 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.5 28.1 29.1 30.3 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.1 73.0 73.8 74.6 75.4 76.8 77.8 78.5 79.3 80.2 80.8 81.1 80.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 41 52 56 54 57 52 57 64 39 25 39 34 24 17 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -15. -25. -32. -39. -45. -48. -52. -56. -59. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 8. 14. 15. 21. 18. 16. 15. 12. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. -2. -5. -4. -6. -4. -5. -5. -9. -11. -14. -20. -30. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.7 72.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 615.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 9.3% 5.0% 2.1% 1.1% 3.0% 5.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 16.8% 13.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 7.5% 2.7% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/31/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 34( 56) 32( 70) 31( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 14( 24) 25( 43) 22( 56) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 122 121 120 118 115 116 114 116 115 115 111 109 106 100 90 81 18HR AGO 120 119 118 117 115 112 113 111 113 112 112 108 106 103 97 87 78 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 113 110 111 109 111 110 110 106 104 101 95 85 76 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 108 105 106 104 106 105 105 101 99 96 90 80 71 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 98 99 97 99 98 98 94 92 89 83 73 64 IN 6HR 120 122 113 107 104 103 104 102 104 103 103 99 97 94 88 78 69 IN 12HR 120 122 121 112 106 102 103 101 103 102 102 98 96 93 87 77 68