* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 84 87 92 95 100 101 105 107 107 103 103 98 92 89 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 84 87 92 95 100 101 105 107 79 46 34 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 78 81 84 86 93 98 102 103 105 106 78 45 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 6 7 10 10 10 10 7 8 8 12 13 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 -2 -7 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 220 188 196 234 273 283 318 303 322 267 292 245 268 227 258 217 222 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 157 159 157 157 156 156 159 164 160 161 167 169 169 169 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 144 145 142 140 137 136 138 142 135 136 140 142 142 143 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 53 55 55 57 57 59 60 63 62 69 65 67 60 58 56 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 11 13 14 15 18 19 21 23 24 23 24 22 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -41 -36 -40 -45 -29 -31 4 -6 19 0 22 -7 15 6 18 4 200 MB DIV 33 54 44 10 12 28 11 27 -2 27 11 33 12 54 27 30 32 700-850 TADV 4 3 0 0 1 -1 -4 0 -3 0 -3 0 3 4 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 278 336 387 444 522 643 630 471 305 157 48 -32 -89 -29 -61 -136 -211 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.4 25.6 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.5 68.2 68.9 69.7 71.5 73.4 75.3 77.0 78.6 79.9 80.9 81.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 84 77 45 46 52 42 55 55 54 56 50 39 11 26 23 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 8. 11. 14. 14. 12. 12. 8. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 20. 25. 26. 30. 32. 32. 28. 28. 23. 17. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.0 66.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.83 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 29.2% 20.0% 14.8% 10.7% 17.9% 15.7% 17.3% Logistic: 4.8% 21.3% 12.8% 7.2% 3.9% 16.1% 14.6% 13.5% Bayesian: 3.2% 11.5% 3.8% 0.4% 0.2% 3.3% 3.0% 0.2% Consensus: 8.5% 20.7% 12.2% 7.5% 5.0% 12.4% 11.1% 10.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 13( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 1( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 81 84 87 92 95 100 101 105 107 79 46 34 29 28 27 18HR AGO 75 74 77 80 83 88 91 96 97 101 103 75 42 30 25 24 23 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 77 82 85 90 91 95 97 69 36 24 19 18 17 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 68 73 76 81 82 86 88 60 27 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT