* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/29/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 85 87 92 96 100 101 104 106 107 104 98 92 87 86 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 85 87 92 96 100 101 104 106 71 42 38 32 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 86 89 94 100 104 107 109 110 74 42 43 46 42 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 7 10 8 5 10 5 8 3 8 5 11 9 10 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -4 -4 -5 -2 -4 -2 -3 1 -4 0 -3 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 225 214 176 183 217 259 299 324 314 320 273 223 247 206 237 182 248 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.7 30.3 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 159 157 157 158 155 156 160 163 158 162 169 165 163 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 148 146 144 142 138 138 140 141 135 137 146 137 135 136 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 7 6 9 7 700-500 MB RH 51 52 55 56 55 58 58 62 64 70 69 69 66 62 56 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 13 15 16 17 20 22 24 23 21 18 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -33 -34 -32 -38 -28 -32 -13 -15 9 12 29 13 27 25 23 2 200 MB DIV 26 31 50 42 19 28 21 31 15 40 23 33 38 47 32 29 15 700-850 TADV 8 5 4 2 1 6 -2 0 -2 1 -1 2 2 5 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 167 267 319 366 439 567 615 522 333 170 41 -52 -41 27 38 -19 -111 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.9 25.9 26.6 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.0 67.7 68.4 69.2 70.9 72.8 74.8 76.7 78.5 80.0 81.2 82.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 81 84 77 46 47 53 44 58 55 56 47 38 24 48 47 28 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 11. 6. 1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 21. 25. 26. 29. 31. 32. 29. 23. 17. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.0 66.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 33.0% 23.7% 17.8% 11.8% 21.6% 21.3% 18.7% Logistic: 8.0% 29.4% 21.0% 17.3% 8.5% 20.8% 16.0% 16.6% Bayesian: 5.1% 10.2% 4.8% 0.4% 0.3% 4.1% 6.2% 0.3% Consensus: 11.3% 24.2% 16.5% 11.8% 6.9% 15.5% 14.5% 11.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/29/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 8( 13) 10( 21) 13( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 81 85 87 92 96 100 101 104 106 71 42 38 32 26 26 18HR AGO 75 74 77 81 83 88 92 96 97 100 102 67 38 34 28 22 22 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 77 82 86 90 91 94 96 61 32 28 22 16 16 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 67 72 76 80 81 84 86 51 22 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT