* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL062019 08/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 38 38 38 34 33 30 28 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 38 38 38 34 33 30 28 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 5 12 21 42 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 -1 2 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 335 338 279 224 208 198 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.7 25.9 14.4 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 131 136 117 73 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 113 119 104 70 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 62 59 55 49 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 15 1 9 -10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 32 23 32 48 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -3 -9 -11 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 384 341 339 394 307 78 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.3 35.4 37.1 38.8 43.1 47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.8 72.4 72.0 70.9 69.8 66.5 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 19 22 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 23 30 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -7. -12. -16. -21. -25. -31. -35. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -26. -28. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.1 72.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062019 ERIN 08/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.7% 9.5% 7.4% 6.8% 7.5% 3.7% 3.9% Logistic: 0.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.3% 3.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 1.2% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062019 ERIN 08/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062019 ERIN 08/28/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 38 38 38 34 33 30 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 37 37 33 32 29 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 33 29 28 25 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 21 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT