* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 68 73 79 85 88 92 93 98 96 95 94 94 91 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 68 73 79 85 88 92 93 98 96 95 94 74 45 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 63 65 71 79 88 97 102 104 102 95 88 82 65 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 10 11 9 6 2 5 11 9 12 13 16 18 17 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -4 -1 -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 240 251 229 234 246 192 303 310 342 288 309 271 270 242 249 215 214 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.5 28.8 28.2 28.2 28.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 154 150 150 154 157 157 153 153 158 156 159 146 137 138 147 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 143 142 145 146 143 137 136 139 135 135 122 114 115 122 136 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.0 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 7 8 6 9 5 700-500 MB RH 45 46 47 49 52 58 59 62 63 69 66 68 64 62 53 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 8 9 10 10 11 13 15 17 20 24 24 25 27 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -8 -12 -26 -29 -31 -49 -31 -31 7 -7 14 -1 20 13 32 41 200 MB DIV 6 6 -5 -1 0 39 21 42 23 22 9 43 2 30 21 39 38 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 6 5 1 2 1 -7 1 0 3 3 2 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 215 95 36 117 211 319 474 615 630 423 282 163 79 38 28 -18 -85 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.4 26.4 27.2 28.0 28.6 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.1 64.9 65.7 66.4 67.2 68.6 70.1 71.8 73.7 75.8 77.5 79.0 80.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 64 69 78 82 55 54 40 58 57 52 63 38 25 37 29 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 11. 12. 13. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 24. 30. 33. 37. 38. 43. 41. 40. 39. 39. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.1 64.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.42 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 36.2% 23.9% 18.9% 11.8% 32.5% 32.6% 30.2% Logistic: 10.8% 25.3% 18.7% 13.5% 7.0% 23.0% 25.6% 26.5% Bayesian: 3.3% 29.3% 11.8% 1.2% 0.8% 7.0% 3.5% 0.4% Consensus: 9.3% 30.2% 18.1% 11.2% 6.5% 20.8% 20.6% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 65 68 73 79 85 88 92 93 98 96 95 94 74 45 18HR AGO 55 54 57 60 63 68 74 80 83 87 88 93 91 90 89 69 40 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 57 62 68 74 77 81 82 87 85 84 83 63 34 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 53 59 65 68 72 73 78 76 75 74 54 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT