* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/28/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 61 64 69 74 79 86 89 92 95 93 96 94 94 92 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 58 61 66 71 76 83 86 89 92 66 41 32 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 56 50 58 62 68 77 88 97 101 102 72 43 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 11 12 7 9 2 6 5 14 12 20 24 31 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 0 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -3 2 -1 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 204 225 241 229 238 232 239 138 303 8 293 282 266 249 249 238 253 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 154 151 149 152 154 155 155 159 158 157 154 170 168 164 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 148 144 141 142 141 141 139 141 139 136 133 146 139 135 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 7 5 9 7 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 48 51 56 58 61 64 69 70 75 69 63 47 40 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 11 13 16 17 20 23 23 27 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 1 -1 -7 -21 -36 -39 -33 7 5 35 12 47 28 59 -34 200 MB DIV 30 12 14 3 5 19 26 40 40 48 9 51 24 36 31 15 5 700-850 TADV 2 0 4 7 8 6 0 6 -1 0 4 3 6 3 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 311 183 57 11 100 208 351 518 571 431 252 84 -55 -46 -69 -117 -160 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.4 21.2 22.9 24.5 25.8 26.8 27.7 28.4 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.5 65.4 66.3 67.2 68.7 70.2 71.8 73.6 75.7 77.7 79.8 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 52 75 72 69 70 49 47 58 55 52 43 28 33 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 12. 11. 14. 14. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 24. 29. 36. 39. 42. 45. 43. 46. 44. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.4 63.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.38 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 35.6% 23.1% 16.3% 11.0% 28.0% 33.8% 35.4% Logistic: 11.0% 30.3% 23.8% 17.5% 8.4% 25.4% 25.3% 27.9% Bayesian: 3.0% 26.5% 18.4% 1.2% 0.7% 7.6% 5.5% 0.6% Consensus: 9.1% 30.8% 21.8% 11.7% 6.7% 20.3% 21.5% 21.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/28/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 58 61 66 71 76 83 86 89 92 66 41 32 29 27 18HR AGO 50 49 53 53 56 61 66 71 78 81 84 87 61 36 27 24 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 49 54 59 64 71 74 77 80 54 29 20 17 15 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 53 58 65 68 71 74 48 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT