* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 62 66 67 67 68 69 69 71 74 77 79 81 82 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 62 66 67 59 62 63 63 65 68 71 48 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 56 59 65 69 70 64 67 72 79 85 89 59 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 6 4 11 12 17 4 5 9 7 11 11 8 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -6 1 -3 -4 -1 -4 -4 -5 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 60 224 281 307 319 262 265 252 310 297 45 4 41 359 25 328 315 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 30.1 30.1 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 151 154 154 152 154 154 149 154 155 156 155 157 171 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 150 152 152 149 150 146 139 143 143 142 139 139 150 148 160 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 46 46 46 48 50 56 59 61 61 63 63 64 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 -2 0 9 3 3 -3 -5 -29 -46 -44 -23 -22 -26 -30 -26 200 MB DIV -5 -5 26 30 19 22 8 -6 21 25 21 21 14 0 11 9 8 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 0 4 3 6 6 5 3 -1 -2 -1 2 0 8 LAND (KM) 349 296 294 354 422 291 91 -8 19 168 260 324 278 61 -95 -3 105 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.7 17.1 18.4 19.9 21.3 22.7 24.1 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.3 59.4 60.5 61.5 62.5 64.6 66.6 68.5 70.2 71.9 73.7 75.6 77.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 51 38 40 47 47 45 76 73 51 43 65 73 67 45 15 58 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. 24. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 17. 17. 18. 19. 19. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.5 58.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.85 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 39.3% 25.5% 19.7% 15.8% 34.6% 32.1% 31.3% Logistic: 12.1% 33.0% 33.0% 26.5% 9.6% 18.3% 13.3% 11.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 14.1% 23.1% 0.9% 0.7% 6.3% 3.4% 0.3% Consensus: 8.2% 28.8% 27.2% 15.7% 8.7% 19.7% 16.3% 14.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 59 62 66 67 59 62 63 63 65 68 71 48 37 41 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 62 63 55 58 59 59 61 64 67 44 33 37 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 56 57 49 52 53 53 55 58 61 38 27 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 47 48 40 43 44 44 46 49 52 29 18 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT