* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 61 64 68 72 73 74 76 78 81 82 87 86 91 89 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 61 64 68 72 73 60 53 55 57 59 63 54 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 60 64 72 78 80 65 56 62 70 79 86 77 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 1 2 5 6 11 10 8 4 4 4 13 7 14 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -4 1 -2 0 -3 -2 -5 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 109 70 117 310 313 254 260 241 254 172 29 80 15 20 358 335 314 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.1 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 149 151 154 154 152 154 153 150 155 157 159 159 162 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 149 151 154 151 149 148 145 140 143 145 146 144 143 149 156 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 44 47 46 47 49 55 58 59 63 62 67 65 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 2 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 3 -2 0 13 12 15 10 -5 -36 -34 -45 -11 -38 -9 -35 200 MB DIV 6 -7 -1 20 27 19 8 1 1 9 7 29 0 4 -10 34 -4 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 2 2 1 3 6 5 6 6 0 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 449 356 289 285 338 423 214 79 -33 34 156 214 258 182 -22 -60 65 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.9 16.1 17.4 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.5 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.2 59.3 60.4 61.5 63.6 65.6 67.6 69.3 70.9 72.6 74.3 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 11 9 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 38 38 46 43 57 87 75 48 45 62 67 58 43 32 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -18. -20. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 26. 28. 31. 32. 37. 36. 41. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.1 57.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.84 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 37.9% 24.8% 18.6% 12.7% 33.2% 35.7% 34.5% Logistic: 16.2% 34.4% 32.2% 26.3% 10.7% 27.7% 17.9% 14.6% Bayesian: 7.1% 25.3% 44.4% 2.9% 1.6% 29.1% 11.3% 0.4% Consensus: 11.8% 32.5% 33.8% 15.9% 8.3% 30.0% 21.6% 16.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 61 64 68 72 73 60 53 55 57 59 63 54 37 36 18HR AGO 50 49 53 56 59 63 67 68 55 48 50 52 54 58 49 32 31 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 56 60 61 48 41 43 45 47 51 42 25 24 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 47 51 52 39 32 34 36 38 42 33 16 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT