* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 60 63 68 70 73 73 74 75 78 82 85 88 92 95 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 60 63 68 70 73 73 57 47 50 53 57 60 64 67 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 61 65 73 81 83 81 63 49 57 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 1 3 5 8 9 11 1 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 -2 2 -5 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 149 63 49 36 344 330 258 271 259 301 255 360 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 152 149 151 156 152 154 154 151 154 154 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 152 149 151 155 149 149 147 142 143 142 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 43 43 43 46 47 47 48 51 55 58 61 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 11 2 0 10 14 14 3 0 -24 -36 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 0 -4 -8 15 23 18 28 -12 15 -2 19 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 6 8 6 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 558 464 362 296 277 389 330 157 55 -54 11 111 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.7 18.9 19.9 20.9 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.8 57.0 58.1 59.2 60.3 62.5 64.6 66.6 68.4 70.1 71.7 73.2 74.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 49 54 39 38 46 43 71 89 66 50 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 20. 23. 23. 24. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 42. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.8 55.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 32.7% 20.7% 14.1% 9.9% 27.4% 39.6% 34.7% Logistic: 9.6% 33.7% 30.9% 27.0% 10.9% 27.2% 11.2% 19.5% Bayesian: 2.1% 9.8% 10.0% 0.3% 0.2% 5.4% 1.0% 0.8% Consensus: 7.3% 25.4% 20.5% 13.8% 7.0% 20.0% 17.3% 18.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 57 60 63 68 70 73 73 57 47 50 53 57 60 64 67 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 63 65 68 68 52 42 45 48 52 55 59 62 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 57 59 62 62 46 36 39 42 46 49 53 56 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 50 53 53 37 27 30 33 37 40 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT