* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 60 64 68 70 71 71 73 75 79 84 88 93 95 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 60 64 68 70 71 71 50 45 49 54 58 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 60 68 76 80 81 79 55 47 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 0 3 6 1 6 7 12 14 14 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 132 29 49 42 314 256 267 242 281 240 319 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 148 152 154 154 157 157 155 154 155 156 160 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 148 152 154 153 157 156 151 148 147 146 148 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 43 43 44 49 48 48 48 50 54 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 7 11 8 7 13 14 14 -1 -2 -30 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 0 -6 -9 -6 25 24 21 10 -17 -3 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 0 1 1 2 5 3 3 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 617 560 459 365 296 313 445 250 121 38 -67 21 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.7 15.8 16.9 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.9 57.0 58.1 59.2 61.3 63.4 65.4 67.3 69.1 70.7 72.3 73.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 34 43 43 35 36 44 53 83 87 62 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 28. 30. 34. 39. 43. 48. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.6 54.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 36.7% 25.0% 18.8% 12.0% 29.6% 36.2% 40.6% Logistic: 13.3% 40.6% 40.9% 40.0% 17.8% 38.0% 22.5% 22.6% Bayesian: 2.9% 22.5% 33.4% 1.9% 0.7% 11.4% 2.0% 0.6% Consensus: 9.8% 33.3% 33.1% 20.3% 10.2% 26.3% 20.2% 21.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 60 64 68 70 71 71 50 45 49 54 58 63 66 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 55 59 63 65 66 66 45 40 44 49 53 58 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 52 56 58 59 59 38 33 37 42 46 51 54 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 46 48 49 49 28 23 27 32 36 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT